Getty Images. Pictured: 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo and TE George Kittle, Titans WR Julio Jones and QB Ryan Tannehill (left to right)
- NFL odds for 49ers vs. Titans moved in the final hours before kickoff, pushing San Francisco from a 3- to 3.5-point favorite.
- The over/under also rose from 44.5 to 46 points since our expert wrote the following guide to betting Thursday Night Football.
- His recommended pick, though, is actually more valuable now with the odds movement.
|Time||8:20 p.m. ET|
After a slew of uncertainty due to COVID-19 outbreaks across the league and some unexpected Tuesday night football additions, Week 16 is finally upon us. The San Francisco 49ers and Tennessee Titans have the honor of getting things under way on Thursday Night Football. Read on to see my top predictions and play for the matchup.
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
49ers vs. Titans Injury Report
- LB Dre Greenlaw (groin): Out
- S Talanoa Hufanga (knee): Out
- DL Maurice Hurst (calf): Out
- RB Elijah Mitchell (knee): Out
- LB Azeez Al-Shaair (elbow): Questionable
- T Taylor Lewan (back): Out
- LB David Long Jr. (hamstring): Out
- DL Larrell Murchison (knee): Out
- G Rodger Saffold III (shoulder/illness): Out
49ers vs. Titans Matchup
|49ers Offense||DVOA Rank||Titans Defense|
|49ers Defense||DVOA Rank||Titans Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Titans Ready To Bounce Back
The Titans are coming off of a 19-13 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 15. Pittsburgh was my favorite bet heading into last week, in part because the (then) 9-4 Titans were an overrated team. According to my expected wins model, Tennessee had played closer to a 7-6 team and had benefited a ton from luck in one-score games (4-1 record). But, as expected, regression hit the Titans hard last week — they came up inches short on a fourth-and-6 that would have set up first-and-goal for a potential go-ahead touchdown.
49ers Pass D Could Cost Them
The 49ers put on an admirable performance in their 31-13 win over the Atlanta Falcons, but the Titans might just have their number this week. Tennessee should be getting A.J. Brown and Julio Jones back in the lineup for the first time since Week 9. The timing couldn’t be better for the Titans considering the 49ers defense has been stout against the run (second in DVOA), but beatable through the air (21st in DVOA).
NFL Pick: 49ers vs. Titans
I’ll be betting on the Titans to bounce back in Week 16, as it’s a minor miracle they were almost able to beat the Steelers despite having a -4 turnover margin in the game.
Despite 63% of the action coming in on the 49ers at time of writing (check real-time public betting data here), the line was bet down from +3.5 to +3 across all books. It’s clear that sharps have been all over the Titans at +3.5 — I believe it makes sense to buy the extra half-point, especially considering just how valuable that number is.
Pick: Titans +3.5 | Bet to: -140
Editor’s note (6:30 p.m. ET): The Titans are now +3.5 across the market, meaning there’s no longer a need to buy the half-point. Find the best real-time line here.
|More 49ers-Titans Odds, Picks, Trends|